It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.