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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."